Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Nevada Caucuses Saturday with about a 6% margin over Bernie Sanders when measured by county delegates elected, 53-47%. Meanwhile, Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican Primary by 11%, with Marco Rubio second and Ted Cruz about a percentage point behind him. Jeb Bush was fourth and saw the writing on the wall, withdrawing from the race before Sunday morning. This suggests that the outcomes of the nominating processes will align with this journal’s prediction of a Clinton-Trump general election, a dreary prospect.
Nevada should have been a lock for the Clinton camp, but the Sanders team took a 25-point deficit a couple of months ago and trimmed it so six. Had Senator Harry Reid of Nevada not made some phone calls to let casino day workers take 3 hour breaks to caucus (Mr Reid is truly a high roller), those six points might not have materialized. The suspicion here is that Mrs. Clinton is failing to connect with voters who dream big, that she has a Bush-the-Elder problem with that “vision thing.” Simply put, she’s not really a very good campaigner or candidate. Regardless of her accomplishments in office, getting elected doesn’t come easy to her.
That said, Mr. Sanders’ message of economic equality and justice sounds great, but it didn’t light up the black or Latino communities in Nevada. If he can’t peel off at least 40% of non-white voters in the primaries and caucuses, he’s doomed. Based on the outcome in Nevada and on the polls in South Carolina, he will not get the kind of support he needs. Much can happen in the next three weeks, but if he doesn’t perform substantially better, Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead will be large enough on March 16 that he won’t be able to catch her. The rules for awarding delegates on the Democratic side make it hard to build up a big lead, but a few blow outs and such a lead can’t be reversed. Time will tell, but by April, Mrs. Clinton should have no worries for the nomination.
On the GOP side, Jeb Bush’s suspension of his campaign means that there are now just two candidates palatable to the party old guard: Marco Rubio and John Kasich. The problem is that there are still two, and Ted Cruz isn’t going to quit for some time since he is the only “True Conservative” in the race. Add in Dr. Ben Carson, who hasn’t got anything else to do but run for president, and the non-Trump vote is admirably divided too many ways to harm Mr. Trump. His third of the vote in South Carolina was enough for him to win every Congressional District [CD], and by doing so, it won for him all 50 of the state’s delegates.
This last point is significant. According to the GOP’s delegate selection rules, there are no winner-take-all states until after March 15. However, South Carolina’s system was such that it became a de facto WTA state. Other states hve 50% triggers, or they award extra delegates for winning the state and more for a CD. While many on the right with an ax to grind are arguing about how the establishment can win in a brokered convention, they have not got the arithmetic right. The Trump campaign may have this whole thing wrapped up in May if it gets the right result in certain states.
This journal is genuinely disappointed in the process and the candidates. The process is ridiculous and needs to be replaced, ideally with a national primary in May — alternatively, a series of regional primaries after a kick off Super Tuesday of the 5 or 10 most populous states.
However, the candidates this year are a disappointment regardless of the process. Mrs. Clinton, Messrs. Trump and Sanders are simply too old to be president. The Democratic Party seemed unwilling to deny the inevitability of Mrs. Clinton (Mr. Sanders served Vermont as an independent), and therefore, hasn’t put any of the next generation in front of the cameras (Martin O’Malley excepted), and that may be a problem in future. As for the GOP, Mr. Kasich is the only one who had the kind of experience and political nous needed to succeed as president, and it appears he won’t be the nominee. Surely in a nation of 310 million, there is more talent than this