Looking Ahead for 2014 – The Predictions

As has been the custom since its launch, the Kensington Review offers 11 predictions for the coming year. These are simple predictions that are empirically verifiable (for fans of Karl Popper, they are falsifiable); one doesn’t resort to quatrains or metaphors open to interpretation. In 2013, 8 of the 11 forecasts proved correct. This year, one offers the following predictions:

  • The Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives after the November election.
  • The Democrats will lose seats in the US Senate in the November election but will maintain a majority when independents who caucus with them are included in the count.
  • Scotland will not vote for independence in the referendum scheduled for the autumn.
  • The US unemployment rate will fall below 6.0% no later than the November Non Farm Payrolls report on December 5
  • The US Congress will pass and the President will sign an immigration reform bill.
  • Russia will suffer a terrorist attack during the Sochi Olympics, although not necessarily in Sochi itself.
  • Brazil’s World Cup will be marred by at least one riot in one of its major cities
  • Trans Canada will finally get approval from the US State Department for the XL oil pipeline
  • Gold will lose value this year and close out 2014 below the 2013 close of US$1200
  • The winner of the English Premier League will have fewer than 90 points at the end of the season
  • A majority of states (26) in the US will allow same-sex marriage by December 31, 2014. There is one other prediction that is certain to come true but which cannot be easily verified. Everyone is in for a surprise of some sort before the end of the year — one can only hope such surprises are pleasant ones.