Predictions for 2015 Were Largely Correct

The dust of 2015 is just about settled, and one can look back on the year that has been to assess the validity of the predictions made here at the beginning of last January. Of the 11 forecasts made, 8 have come to pass.

  • President Obama will veto at least five bills passed by Congress and all of them will be sustained. No, just the fifth of his presidency.
  • After the Greek elections set for January 25, Syriza will be the largest party in the legislature. Yes.
  • Chelsea FC will win at least 2 titles from among the Premiership, the FA Cup, the Champions League and the League Cup. Yes Premiership and League Cup, and don’t ask about the current season.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average will top 20,000 at some point in the year. No
  • One candidate for president on either the Democratic or Republican side will withdraw from the race before December 31, 2015. Even more than that.
  • Russia’s economy as measured by GDP will shrink by at least 4% during 2015. Yes, unless the fourth quarter was strong, and the initial data suggest otherwise.
  • The Ebola outbreak in West Africa will not be snuffed out by December 31, 2015. No, the world is awaiting the 42 day period that must pass without a new case of the disease for the outbreak to be declared over. Close enough for this to count as a failed forecast.
  • The price of Brent Crude will close lower on December 31, 2015 than it does on December 31, 2014. Yes.
  • The Labour Party will fail to win a majority in May’s election. Yes.
  • The UK Independence Party will win fewer than 5 seats in May’s election. Yes.
  • The Scottish National Party will have more Scottish seats in Westminster following May’s election. Yes.