Predictions for 2014 Were Mixed

The 11 predictions made at the beginning of the year on these pages show that the crystal ball needs some polishing up. Only six have come to pass. That’s what comes of making predictions that can easily be verified rather than relying on quatrains and obscure and fuzzy language. At the beginning of the year, theKensington Review predicted:

  • “The Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives after the November election.” Yes
  • “The Democrats will lose seats in the US Senate in the November election but will maintain a majority when independents who caucus with them are included in the count.” No, the party ran a few bad campaigns in marginal states.
  • “Scotland will not vote for independence in the referendum scheduled for the autumn.” Correct, but if there is a vote again in 15 years, the youth vote may tip things.
  • “The US unemployment rate will fall below 6.0% no later than the November Non Farm Payrolls report on December 5.” 5.8% actually
  • “The US Congress will pass and the President will sign an immigration reform bill.” Not even close.
  • “Russia will suffer a terrorist attack during the Sochi Olympics, although not necessarily in Sochi itself.” No, the security forces did a good job before attacking Ukraine.
  • “Brazil’s World Cup will be marred by at least one riot in one of its major cities.” No. The violence petered out before the games began.
  • “Trans Canada will finally get approval from the US State Department for the XL oil pipeline.” No, and it may not get approval at all given current oil prices
  • “Gold will lose value this year and close out 2014 below the 2013 close of US$1200.” Yes, but not by much.
  • “The winner of the English Premier League will have fewer than 90 points at the end of the season.” Manchester City finished first with 86 points.
  • “A majority of states (26) in the US will allow same-sex marriage by December 31, 2014.” Actually, the number is 35, and it may be universal if the Supreme Court weighs in on a decision by the Sixth Circuit that upholds bans on same sex marriage.