Predictions for 2016

At the beginning of each year, it is customary here to post 11 predictions for the coming 12 months. These are empirically verifiable and not open to misinterpretation. Forecasting the future is useless if the meaning of the forecast is hidden in quatrains, symbols or obscure language — forecasts without flinching. In 2016, these things will come to pass, and in 361 days, all will be able to check them against actual historical fact.


  • Hillary Clinton will be elected President of the United States 
  • Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee for President. 
  • The Democrats will win a majority of seats in the US Senate 
  • The Republicans will keep control of the House of Representatives 
  • The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 25 basis points on at least three occasions before the end of 2016. 
  • The Kansas City Royals will fail to defend successfully their World Series title by not winning the American League pennant. 
  • Bashar al Assad will still rule in Damascus a year from now. 
  • Hamilton will win Best Musical at the Tony Awards 
  • Bill Cosby will not be a convicted felony as 2016 ends 
  • Spain’s newly forming government won’t last the year. New elections will be called before December 31, 2016. 
  • Britain will vote on continued membership in the EU in 2016.Bonus Prediction: If Britain does hold an EU membership referendum, the UK will choose to remain part of the EU by fewer than 8 percentage points between the In total and the Out total. The percentage count will be 54% to 46% or closer.

    As the New Year begins, the Kensington Review wishes to express its gratitude to those who visit its pages either daily or just occasionally. Without readers, even the finest writing and analysis is pointless. It is the continued interest of the readers of this small journal that ensure that it will be here in 12 months’ time to consider just how accurate or ridiculously wrong these forecasts are.