Soft Brexit May Prevent Second Scottish Independence Referendum

Scotland’s pro-independence First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she will not hold a second referendum on independence if the UK manages to negotiate a soft Brexit from the European Union. This is a reversal, or refinement, of her position immediately after the Brexit referendum passed despite opposition from 60% of Scottish voters. She would settle for greater authority for the Edinburgh parliament, but this statement also positions her to call a referendum if Brexit’s terms are harsh. Some Scots are called canny for a reason.

Part of the difficulty and of the opportunity lies in the definition of hard and soft. Last month, the BBC explained, “‘hard’ Brexit could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues like the free movement of people, leaving the EU single market and trading with the EU as if it were any other country outside Europe, based on World Trade Organization rules.

“This would mean – at least in the short term before a trade deal was done – the UK and EU would probably apply tariffs and other trade restrictions on each other.

“At the other end of the scale, a ‘soft’ Brexit might involve some form of membership of the European Union single market, in return for a degree of free movement.”

Scotland under Ms. Sturgeon would insist on some powers being repatriated from Brussels be devolved to Edinburgh. This would mean Scottish control of agriculture, fisheries and environmental protection. Her office has also suggested further powers move north including employment law, immigration and import and export control. It starts to look like Devo-Max that David Cameron and the other unionist politicians offered if Scotland voted to stay in the UK.

Ms. Sturgeon wants Scotland to secure greater and preferential access to the EU relative to the rest of the UK upon Brexit, and to do that, she wants Scottish membership in the European Free Trade Area and the European Economic Area. That is the same arrangement Norway has. However, constitutional experts in the UK doubt this can work, with Scotland having a different arrangement than the rest of the UK.

Her detractors say that Ms. Sturgeon is merely acknowledging that there is no majority for independence among Scots in recent polls. It’s stuck at the 45% that the Yes vote got in the October referendum. Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative party leader, said: “The first minister knows that if another referendum on independence was called tomorrow, she’d lose. Polls show fewer and fewer Scots agree with her separation obsession, and support for the question being asked again has collapsed.”

Ms. Sturgeon’s supporters note that that is higher than the 35% they had before the campaign began. They believe a campaign would add to their vote and form a majority. Besides, the effects of Scotland losing access to the EU as a member would probably increase support for independence; Scotland benefits greatly from membership.

As Ms. Sturgeon tweeted, the ball is in Teresa May’s court as far as Scotland goes. With regard to Brexit, it is difficult to see whose move it is. This week, she had to replace her ambassador to Brussels. Sir Ivan Rogers was replaced by Sir Tim Barrow, but the Department for Exiting the EU tried to take control. The Financial Times reports, “Olly Robbins, the permanent secretary at the Department for Exiting the EU (Dexeu), attempted a land grab following the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers from the Brussels post this week, the officials said.

“The officials told the Financial Times that Mr Robbins suggested downgrading the job of UK ambassador to a director-general, with a reporting line to Mr Robbins at Dexeu.

“But the Foreign Office sees the role in Brussels as a vital diplomatic post and moved to block Mr Robbins, officials said. Sir Tim’s nomination was also supported by Sir Jeremy Heywood, the powerful cabinet secretary who heads the civil service.”

It’s impossible to tell whose move it is when the players don’t even know if they are in the game. Brexit looks harder all the time. Ms. Sturgeon is ready if it is.

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