President-Elect Donald Trump has made his mind up about his Secretary of State. The failed casino owner wants the top diplomat to be Rex Tillerson, currently CEO of ExxonMobil, a man with no experience in government nor in public diplomacy. As with most matters political, he won’t turn out to be as brilliant a choice as his supporters suggest, nor as bad as his detractors say. This journal would prefer a great many other Republicans (Jon Huntsman or Mitt Romney, for instance) not because Mr. Tillerson lacks the skills, nor because of his close ties to Russia, but rather because of the narrowness of his experience.
Being a successful businessman or woman does not make one a good candidate for elective office, as America will discover in the next four years. However, the administrative aspects of running a large corporation help develop skills that are partially transferable to running a government department. The differences, and where Mr. Tillerson may come acrupper, are in the amorphous objective of State (pursuit of national interests is harder to define and measure than being profitable), the public-sector work force (no bonuses, no incentive pay), and the heightened scrutiny (Congressional hearings are much tougher than shareholder meetings).
Mr. Tillerson’s closeness to Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a matter of concern if one believes that it is in America’s interests to continue the isolation of Moscow until such time as Mr. Putin reforms his ways or is replaced by someone more friendly to liberal democracy. If one is content merely to make deals that profit America at the expense of others, this is less of a problem.
If one were truly interested in a personal relationship that would help smooth relations, the Secretary of State would be close to Chinese President Xi. Russia is a declining power, and as such, the world can manage Russia. China is a rising power, much as Germany was in the late 19th and 20th centuries. The chance for conflict is much greater, and therefore, a personal tie would be much more valuable.
The real problem with Mr. Tillerson is that, at age 64, he has spent 41 years as an employee of ExxonMobil or its predecessors. He has no experience of any duration that is not related to the oil industry, and more to the point, he has no experience of a separate corporate culture. He has never worked for any other company since he was a young man.
A military man or woman with 41 years in uniform is going to see the world through that lens. Someone who has spent 41 years in the clergy will see the world that way. Mr. Tillerson is going to see the world as an oilman from ExxonMobil who, for 41 years, has not thought about things a different way. If he had a few years in finance, or some in agriculture, or some in public service, his approach would be influenced by that. A broader experience would be preferable. What’s good for ExxonMobil is not inherently good for America.
As head of the biggest oil company in the world, Mr. Tillerson does know more about the world than most Americans. He has successfully negotiated deals with foreign leaders and businesses. These are going to benefit him as Secretary of State.
However, there are issues at which he will be disadvantage. Climate change and international environmental issues spring to mind. As a deal-maker (one of Mr. Trump’s main selling points in talking to the media about Mr. Tillerson), one must wonder what pawns will be sacrificed in the chess game of global diplomacy. They are likely to be labor and human rights, green issues, small countries with little pull (the Baltic States, for instance), and international organizations in general.
Mr. Tillerson isn’t the worst pick Mr. Trump could have made, but he is far from the best. One hopes the Senate does its job and sends the President-Elect back to human resources to find a more suitable candidate.