President-Elect Donald Trump put this out on Twitter yesterday, “The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” Either he is hopelessly ignorant about all of the issues involved in nuclear strategy, or he believes he can somehow create an advantage for the US with a nuclear arms race. Regardless of which is correct, his statement is exceedingly dangerous.
Trump spokesman Jason Miller said in a statement to NBC News that “President-elect Trump was referring to the threat of nuclear proliferation and the critical need to prevent it — particularly to and among terrorist organizations and unstable and rogue regimes. He has also emphasized the need to improve and modernize our deterrent capability as a vital way to pursue peace through strength.”
Perhaps, Mr. Miller is reading a different tweet. Mr. Trump used the word “expand.” That means only one thing; it means more nuclear warheads. Even if newly appointed White House Counselor Kellyanne Conway was correct when she explained that he meant America needed to be more prepared, that is not how the tweet will be viewed in Moscow, Beijing, or Pyongyang.
Some have charitably noted that Mr. Trump’s tweet could have been in response to a statement Russian President Vladimir Putin made a few hours sooner. As reported in the British newspaper The Independent, he said, “We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defence systems. We must carefully monitor any changes in the balance of power and in the political-military situation in the world, especially along Russian borders, and quickly adapt plans for neutralising threats to our country. We can say with certainty – we are stronger now than any potential aggressor. Anyone!”
Mr. Trump about an hour ago was asked to clarify what he meant in his tweet. His response was, “Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all,” MSNBC reported. Messrs. Putin and Trump have made it clear. They are willing, anxious even, to start building more nuclear weapons, reverse decades of common policy.
There are approximately 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world, 95% of which belong to the US and USSR, in rough parity — more than 7,000 each. If just 1,000 Russian nukes were dropped on the 1,000 largest American cities, there would be no urban settlement in the US with more than 39,000 people. The other 6,000 can be used to wipe out Europe, Asia and there will be plenty left over. In economic vocabulary, the marginal value of extra nuclear weapons at this point is zero. More bombs will not make the world safer.
However, if the US and Russia decide to go down that path, it will not occur in a vacuum. China, France, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea will all be tempted to increase their arsenals. Non-nuclear powers (e.g., Japan, South Korea) may be tempted to develop fission and fusion weapons of their own.
The world has been fortunate that cool heads have prevailed in matters nuclear — so far. However, more nations with nukes means more world leaders with nukes. When the balance of terror meant just America and Russia, few people needed to make the right choice. As the number of nuclear nations expands, more people have to get it right. One mistake can kill millions.
And that doesn’t begin to address the threat of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of a non-state (i.e., terrorist) actor. More nukes, more nations with nukes, means less secure nuclear weapons. If Mr. Trump believes this creates some advantage for America, he is wrong and dangerous. If he simply is ignorant of these and related matters, then he is dangerous and ill-informed. Either way, what he did yesterday makes the entire world less safe.