Donald J. Trump claims that he is running an unconventional political campaign, and there is some truth to it. He is doing a great many things that normally don’t happen in a campaign. He is also not doing a great many things that most expect in a political race. The data will come in on November 8 as to whether he is a genius who has re-invented American politics or a fascist blowhard who had no clue what he was doing. Based on the current polling, the latter is the more likely. He is losing badly, and the reasons are found in his spending.
For July, the Hillary Clinton campaign raised, $52.3 million, and Mr. Trump pulled in $36.7 million, $2 million of which came from Mr. Trump himself. The Huffington Post says, “The Democratic National Committee raised $32.4 million next to $27.2 million for the Republican National Committee. The pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA Action raised $9.9 million while two of the three main pro-Trump super PACs — Great America PAC and Make America Number 1 — raised a combined $4.4 million.” In other words, he has less money to spend. That is a disadvantage no matter how one spins it.
Mrs. Clinton’s campaign spent $38.2 million during the month; most of it, $26 million, on television advertising, and a further $3.3 million to pay a staff and team of consultants totaling 889. Compare that to the Trump campaign, which spent just $18.4 million (nevertheless the most it has ever spent). HuffPo said, “His largest expense was $8.5 million to the digital marketing company Giles-Pascale for online advertising, which often consists of direct click to fundraising appeals.” Spending money to raise money is great if done efficiently. This seems to be paying a premium, though. “The purchase of hats, T-shirts and other apparel added up to $1.8 million. The campaign spent half that — $921,000 — to pay its 148 staff and consultants in July.” He spent another $2.7 million on travel.
Hidden in plain sight among those figures is a telling point. Mrs. Clinton has six times the staff, yet she is paying just over three times what he is. Using figures that strip out consultants, paid staff for Mr. Trump numbers 82 to Mrs. Clinton’s 703 — nine times more for Mrs. Clinton. Corey Lewandowski, the ex-campaign manager for Mr. Trump, was getting $20,000 a month. Mr. Trump is over-paying for what little staff he has.
The TV ad buys tell one an even more depressing story if one wants to stop the Democrats. Mrs. Clinton’s team just announced $80 million in ad buys on top of the $70 million already spent or announced. Mr. Trump, up through August 15, spent nothing on TV ads. His first commercial came out last week. USA Today reports, “The ad buys total $4.9 million for 10 days of commercials beginning Friday, with almost half of the money devoted to placing spots in Florida and Pennsylvania . . . . In addition to the outlay of $1.4 million in Florida and $1 million in Pennsylvania, the campaign will buy $831,000 worth of ads in North Carolina and $746,000 in Ohio, with an additional $1 million in cable buys yet to be publicly designated for a particular state, according to CMAG/Kantar Media.”
This journal counts Florida and Ohio among the seven true swing states (Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire being the others). Spending there makes sense. Mr. Trump believes he can win Pennsylvania, and perhaps he can, but he is spending far too litte there since Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are rather expensive markets. North Carolina is not a swing state, yet it has been put in play, and the fact that Mr. Trump is spending there says a great deal. His air game is so weak in places like Colorado that the Clinton campaign isn’t buying any more air time there — it’s over.
Mr. Trump said at a rally in Maine in June, “You know, I go around, I make speeches. I talk to reporters. I don’t even need commercials, if you want to know the truth. Why do I need these commercials?”
A campaign that doesn’t believe in commercials, that under-spends the competition, that over-pays staff and that spends more on fundraising than on anything else is doomed. It is said that American presidential elections are not won nor lost in November but rather in the late spring and summer. This one is over. All the Clinton people have to do is show up on Election Day to claim the White House.